The Chiefs edged the Giants 20-17 on Monday Night Football, although underdogs continued their hot streak as New York covered the spread (+ 10.5). With the cover, dogs improve to 69-53 ATS (56.6%) on the season. Road dogs improve to 44-28 ATS (61.1%) and primetime dogs move to 17-7 ATS (70.8%). The under 53 also cashed last night. Unders are now 68-53 (56.2%) this season while non-conference unders are 23-13 (63.9%).
Monday also marked a momentous day in the legalization of sports betting in America as the state of Florida quietly and surprisingly legalized betting. The 2021 Florida Gaming Compact signed earlier this Spring authorized betting on sports. In early August, the US Department of the Interior approved the compact, which allowed the Seminole Tribe to move forward with legal betting. Hard Rock Sportsbook went live yesterday morning, accepting online wagers for the first time in Florida history. However, legal challenges remain in the coming weeks and months which could suspend or delay the newly-legalized market.
As of now, Hard Rock is the only operator in Florida and betting is only offered through mobile wagering. Large operators like DraftKings and FanDuel hope to gain entry into Florida through a constitutional amendment in 2022.
In the meantime, let’s discuss where the early action is flowing for NFL Week 9…
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
Both of these non-conference opponents have identical won-loss records and are coming off big road victories. The Patriots (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) have won two straight and just took down the Chargers 27-24, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Panthers (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) just upset the Falcons 19-13, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. The win snapped a 4-game losing skid for Carolina. This line opened with New England listed as a short 2.5-point road favorite. Respected money has pounced on the Patriots, steaming New England up from -2.5 to -3.5. Non-conference road favorites are 11-6 ATS (64.7%) this season. One big injury to monitor here is Panthers QB Sam Darnold. He left last week’s game with a concussion and is questionable for this game. If he can’t go, backup P.J. Walker will get the start. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. Respected under money has dropped the total down from 43 to 41. When the total is 45 or less, the under is 23-13 (63.9%) this season.
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
This non-conference showdown is on track to be the most heavily bet game of the week. The Packers (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) have won seven straight games and just upset the Cardinals 24-21, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) have rotated wins and losses their last six games. Kansas City just beat the Giants 20-17 to get back to .500, although the Chiefs failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3-point home favorite. We’ve seen this line either stay the same or fall to 2.5, signaling pro money grabbing Green Bay at the key number of 3. Short road dogs 3 or less are 14-5 ATS (73.7%) this season. Road dogs are 44-28 ATS (61.1%). Green Bay also enjoys a massive rest vs tired advantage. The Packers last played on Thursday night while the Chiefs are on a short week and just played on Monday night.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams
This Sunday Night showdown features a pair of non-conference foes riding-four-game win streaks. The Titans (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) just upset the Colts 34-31, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams just dismissed the Texans 38-22, although Los Angeles failed to cover as 16.5-point road favorites. The lookahead line on this game was roughly Rams -4.5 at home. But with the news of Titans star RB Derrick Henry likely out for the year with a foot injury, we saw this line re-open at Rams -6.5 and quickly get steamed up to -7.5. Some shops look to be inching up to -8. Non-conference favorites are 21-16 ATS (56.8%) this season. Los Angeles also has correlative betting value as a favorite with a high total (54). The more expected points scored, the easier it is for the favorite to cover. Newly acquired pass rusher Von Miller could also make his Rams debut in this game.